Jerusalem/Tel Aviv — The escalating conflict in Gaza has prompted increasing calls for a ceasefire, with Israeli defense officials reportedly urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize a deal.
The pressure on Israeli negotiators has intensified since their last visit to Doha for talks, with mounting stakes both in Israel and Gaza.
In Israel, families of hostages still held in Gaza are urging the government to seize what they view as a critical opportunity to secure their release.
The situation is dire, with the Hamas-run health ministry reporting that over 40,000 people have been killed in Israeli operations since the conflict began. This staggering figure has amplified the urgency for a resolution.
Adding to the complexity, the United States is deploying a second aircraft carrier and a missile-equipped submarine to the region.
This move follows threats from Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, in response to the recent assassinations of prominent Hamas and Hezbollah figures.
The U.S. believes that a ceasefire could stabilize the broader region and mitigate these threats. US envoy Amos Hochstein, who visited Lebanon this week, emphasized the need for a diplomatic breakthrough.
“We have to take advantage of this window for diplomatic action and diplomatic solutions,” he stated. “That time is now.” President Joe Biden also expressed his commitment to finding a resolution, despite acknowledging the increasing difficulty of achieving a ceasefire.
However, the path to an agreement remains fraught with obstacles. Despite Hamas’s announcement that it would not send a delegation to the talks, indirect negotiations are ongoing.
Hamas representatives have traditionally engaged through shuttle diplomacy, with Qatari and Egyptian mediators facilitating communications between the parties.
Former Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin highlights a critical issue: a lack of motivation among Israeli and Hamas leaders.
“The mediators want the agreement more than the parties do,” Baskin explained. “The United States, Egypt, and Qatar need to apply more pressure and propose clear solutions to break the deadlock.”
Chen Avigdori, whose wife and daughter were among those kidnapped in the October 7 attacks, is advocating for a resolution. “I believe both sides are holding things up,” he said. “Hamas and Netanyahu have missed previous opportunities to reach a deal.”
Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas political leader who succeeded Ismail Haniyeh, faces significant pressure. Analysts suggest that Sinwar may be reevaluating his position as Hamas’s military capabilities wane.
“Sinwar wants to save himself and Hamas from total destruction,” said Chuck Freilich of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “Netanyahu, on the other hand, risks losing his coalition if he agrees to terms that include significant concessions.”
Netanyahu’s position is complicated by his far-right coalition partners, who have warned that agreeing to major concessions, such as the release of Palestinian prisoners, could lead to the collapse of the government.
Netanyahu has maintained that Israeli forces must remain stationed along Gaza’s border with Egypt to prevent arms smuggling, while Hamas accuses Israel of introducing new demands.
The international mediators—primarily the US, Qatar, and Egypt—are leveraging their influence to bridge gaps between the two sides.
Despite their efforts, the success of the negotiations hinges on the willingness of the leaders to compromise. “The US and Qatar can offer inducements and technical solutions, but ultimately, it’s up to the leaders to reach an agreement,” Freilich noted.
As the region watches closely, the fate of the negotiations, the hostages, and the broader conflict depends on the decisions made by Netanyahu and Sinwar.
The ongoing stalemate reflects the complex interplay of political, military, and diplomatic factors, with the potential for significant ramifications for both Gaza and the wider Middle East.
The international community continues to hope for a breakthrough that could lead to a lasting ceasefire and a reduction in the humanitarian toll.
However, the road to peace remains challenging, with critical decisions awaiting the two central figures in this protracted conflict.