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The White House has issued a stark warning to Israel, giving it one month to significantly improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk losing the continued supply of U.S. weapons.
The demand, communicated in a letter from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Israeli officials, comes amid concerns over a significant drop in the amount of aid reaching the besieged coastal enclave in recent months.
The letter, addressed to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, highlighted a troubling humanitarian trajectory, with aid entering Gaza now at its lowest level in over a year.
The U.S. officials’ message emphasized the urgency of addressing this downward trend, with the U.S. administration questioning Israel’s commitment to not restricting humanitarian assistance and adhering to international law when using American-supplied weapons.
Conditions for Continued U.S. Support
The communication is based on a National Security Memorandum (NSM) issued by President Joe Biden in February, which applies to all recipients of U.S. security aid.
The memorandum mandates that recipients must not use American military support to violate human rights or restrict humanitarian aid.
As part of the agreement, Israel had provided assurances in March to facilitate aid into Gaza and adhere to the principles outlined in the memorandum.
However, the U.S. has raised concerns about the recent decline in humanitarian aid, citing the need for concrete action within the next 30 days to ensure compliance.
“Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy under NSM-20 and relevant U.S. law,” the letter stated, indicating that non-compliance could jeopardize future arms shipments to Israel.
Blinken and Austin outlined specific measures that Israel needs to adopt to reverse the situation, including significantly increasing the volume of aid entering Gaza, facilitating the aid delivery route through Jordan, and addressing the isolation of northern Gaza.
The proposed deadline for implementing these improvements is November 13, just after the U.S. presidential election, potentially insulating President Biden from immediate political backlash.
Political and Humanitarian Ramifications
An Israeli official in Washington confirmed that Jerusalem was reviewing the letter’s contents and intends to discuss the matter with American counterparts.
“Israel takes this matter seriously and intends to address the concerns raised in this letter with our American counterparts,” the official said.
The request for substantial improvements reflects mounting pressure from various international actors, including humanitarian organizations and some U.S. lawmakers, who have called for conditioning military aid to Israel over its conduct in Gaza, especially following the escalation of violence since October 7.
The Biden administration’s pressure also comes amidst calls for transparency and accountability in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the use of American military assistance in conflict zones.
The October 7 attacks, in which Hamas-led militants killed approximately 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and kidnapped 251 others, triggered widespread military operations in Gaza, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
The subsequent military actions by Israel have sparked international outcry, with concerns about the humanitarian toll on civilians.
A Decline in Humanitarian Aid
The U.S. officials’ letter noted that while Israel initially took steps to increase the flow of aid into Gaza following its assurances in the spring, the volume of humanitarian aid entering the territory has since dropped by over 50 percent.
The amount of aid reaching Gaza in September marked the lowest monthly total in the past year. The letter explicitly pointed out that humanitarian conditions have deteriorated, calling into question Israel’s adherence to its commitments.
The U.S. Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller acknowledged the letter’s existence during a briefing but emphasized that it was intended as a private correspondence.
He hinted that Israeli officials might have been behind the public disclosure of the letter, suggesting that Washington had not planned to release the information.
The National Security Memorandum issued in February requires Blinken to provide periodic updates to Congress on the compliance of U.S. security aid recipients.
In the first of such updates delivered in May, Blinken indicated that it was reasonable to believe that some U.S.-supplied weapons had been used in a manner inconsistent with international law, but noted that Israel’s commitment to addressing the issue remained credible. However, the recent decline in aid has cast doubts over Israel’s compliance.
Specific Demands and Humanitarian Requirements
The letter from Blinken and Austin laid out three categories of concrete measures that Israel must take to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza:
- Increasing Humanitarian Aid Supply: Israel is urged to facilitate the entry of at least 350 aid trucks into Gaza daily through all four major crossings under its control. This move is considered essential ahead of the approaching winter, with the goal of averting a further humanitarian crisis.
- Facilitating Aid Delivery from Jordan: The U.S. has requested that Israel reinstate a minimum of 50 to 100 commercial trucks per day through aid routes involving Jordan, which have seen a significant reduction in recent months. The ability to deliver goods through these channels is seen as crucial for increasing the overall volume of humanitarian assistance entering the region.
- Addressing Isolation in Northern Gaza: Concerns over forced displacement in northern Gaza have intensified following recent evacuation orders for the city of Jabaliya and surrounding areas. The U.S. is urging Israel to clarify that there is no official policy to forcibly evacuate civilians from this part of the Strip and to ensure that aid organizations continue to have access to the region. The letter also called for implementing pauses in military operations to allow humanitarian efforts and for civilians to relocate inland before winter arrives.
The recent military activities in northern Gaza, aimed at preventing the resurgence of Hamas, have prompted fears among humanitarian agencies and foreign governments that Israel may be adopting a policy of clearing civilians from the area and besieging remaining combatants until they surrender.
Israel has denied any intentions to implement such a strategy, rejecting accusations that it is deliberately obstructing aid supplies.
Ongoing Humanitarian Concerns
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the Israeli military body responsible for overseeing aid distribution in Gaza, has maintained that humanitarian provisions continue, citing social media posts about ongoing bread production in northern Gaza.
According to COGAT, five bakeries in the region are currently producing 1.3 million pita breads daily, suggesting that basic food supplies are available.
However, the overall picture remains bleak, with humanitarian organizations reporting critical shortages of essential supplies, including food, medical equipment, and fuel.
The situation is further exacerbated by the continued military activity and restrictions on movement, which make it difficult for aid workers to reach affected populations.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has reported a severe lack of humanitarian aid entering Gaza since the beginning of the year, with many areas facing shortages that threaten the wellbeing of nearly two million people living in the Strip.
The recent U.S. directive may provide an impetus for addressing these gaps, but much will depend on Israel’s willingness to act swiftly and on U.S. follow-through in ensuring that conditions improve.
Broader Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations
The upcoming November 13 deadline for Israel to meet the U.S. demands falls just after the U.S. presidential election, adding a layer of political complexity.
While President Biden may be a lame duck president when deciding on Israel’s compliance with the NSM, his administration’s approach will likely influence future U.S. policy in the region.
Given the potential impact on U.S.-Israel relations, the administration is walking a tightrope, balancing strategic interests with humanitarian and legal obligations.
The letter serves as a reminder of the Biden administration’s commitment to holding recipients of U.S. security assistance accountable for their use of military support.
As the deadline approaches, the focus will be on Israel’s response and whether it can deliver on the U.S.’s conditions to avert any disruption in its defense partnership.
For now, the message from Washington is clear: substantial and immediate action is required to reverse the humanitarian decline in Gaza, or Israel risks facing significant consequences regarding its continued access to U.S. weapons.