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In a significant development this week, a senior Israeli security official confirmed that both necessary and feasible conditions for striking Iran’s nuclear capabilities have now been met.
This statement marks the first time that Israel’s political and security establishment has acknowledged the viability of military action against Iran’s nuclear program.
According to the official, Israel will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and will continue preparations to strike its nuclear facilities.
“Iran has never been more vulnerable to strikes against its nuclear capabilities,” the official stated, adding that economic sanctions against Iran have managed to slow down but not eliminate the nuclear project.
The official emphasized Israel’s determination to act, regardless of international efforts to restrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Shifting Focus to Hezbollah and Lebanon
While the threat from Iran remains a priority, the Israeli security establishment is also focused on the situation in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains a significant military presence.
The senior security official outlined the potential for a new arrangement with the Lebanese government, which could see the Lebanese army dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the south.
According to the proposal, the Lebanese forces would move Hezbollah’s infrastructure north of the Litani River, with certain locations, such as Hasbani, becoming off-limits for Hezbollah’s military operations.
The emerging agreement envisions a 60-day process during which both Israel and Hezbollah would gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon. Notably, Hezbollah, which has expressed interest in the agreement, would have no veto power over its implementation.
Should violations of the arrangement occur, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would report them to a monitoring committee, which would include representatives from the United States. However, in cases of immediate threat, the IDF would act unilaterally, without prior coordination.
The security official also emphasized that while Hezbollah’s military capabilities remain significant, the organization’s strategic influence has diminished in recent years.
“Hezbollah no longer has the ability to protect Iran,” the official remarked, underscoring Israel’s growing confidence in its ability to act in the region without facing substantial resistance from the Lebanese militant group.
Hostage Deal with Hamas
In addition to the threat from Iran and Hezbollah, the Israeli government is engaged in ongoing discussions with Hamas regarding a potential hostage deal.
The senior security official confirmed that Israel is closer than ever to reaching an agreement that would involve a 42-day ceasefire.
However, the official was quick to stress that this would not be an end to the ongoing war with Hamas but a temporary pause in fighting for the purposes of securing the release of hostages.
Under the proposed arrangement, prisoners whose names are currently being negotiated with Egypt and Turkey would be released in exchange for Israeli hostages.
The release would prioritize humanitarian cases, with both sides engaging in discussions about the details.
According to the official, Hamas is showing interest in the deal, but Israel’s challenge is to ensure it is completed as quickly as possible, given the urgent humanitarian situation.
Despite the ceasefire proposal, Israel’s military operations would continue to avoid harming hostages. However, if violations of the terms were detected, Israel would be prepared to strike to protect its interests and ensure the safety of its citizens.
Additionally, one of Hamas’s demands includes the ability for Palestinians to return to northern Gaza. This has led to a divergence of views within Israel’s military leadership.
The Southern Command and division commanders have expressed a preference to continue fighting Hamas throughout Gaza, even if this means withdrawing from specific locations as part of an agreement with Hamas.
‘Day After’ in Gaza: A New Approach
As part of its broader strategy in Gaza, Israel is considering a new approach to post-conflict operations.
A senior official confirmed that Southern Command is exploring the possibility of engaging a civilian American company to assist in security and humanitarian aid distribution in northern Gaza. This would be part of a pilot program that could eventually be expanded across Gaza.
The Israeli security official emphasized that the IDF’s involvement in this process would be limited to coordination, and that similar operations have been conducted successfully in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This approach, which seeks to avoid direct military involvement while maintaining security, would be aimed at stabilizing northern Gaza in the aftermath of the conflict.
The official estimated that this process could take up to 40 days in northern Gaza, with the potential to replicate it in other areas of the region if successful.
No Role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza
The official also addressed the broader issue of the “day after” in Gaza, following a potential ceasefire or political agreement.
Israel’s military strategy in Gaza, the official stated, would be to operate in the region as it currently operates in the West Bank, with full operational freedom.
The official was adamant that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should not play a role in Gaza following the conflict.
“It would be a complete mistake,” the official remarked, explaining that the PA’s entry into Gaza could destabilize the region and undermine Israeli security interests.
While the PA has historically had some influence in Gaza, Israel’s preference is for the area to remain under its control or that of local forces aligned with Israeli interests.
Ultra-Orthodox Recruitment and Military Investigations
On a domestic front, the security official addressed the issue of ultra-Orthodox recruitment in the IDF. Although Israel has made strides in integrating ultra-Orthodox men into the military, the official acknowledged that there is still work to be done.
The IDF has absorbed around 1,800 ultra-Orthodox soldiers so far, and the goal is to recruit an additional 3,000.
While the security official did not express support for mandatory recruitment orders, he emphasized the importance of dialogue with ultra-Orthodox leaders to encourage greater participation in military service.
He also stated that the IDF is in the process of expediting military investigations to make decisions on future appointments.
Conclusion
Israel’s security strategy is being reshaped to address a range of challenges, from the looming threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program to the ongoing conflict with Hamas and the complex situation in southern Lebanon.
The senior security official’s statements paint a picture of a country determined to secure its interests, with military operations and diplomatic efforts working in tandem to protect its citizens and maintain regional stability.
As the situation evolves, Israel is preparing for a range of possible outcomes, from military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities to new arrangements with Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.