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Israel’s capability to strike Iran’s nuclear program has transformed dramatically over the past nine months, particularly in recent weeks.
Once considered a high-risk operation, military experts now assess that a strike is both feasible and potentially imminent, given recent advancements and operations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken credit for significant developments that have reduced the operational risks of an attack.
On April 19, Israel reportedly destroyed Iran’s advanced S-300 anti-aircraft radar systems, and further strikes on October 26 dismantled additional defensive measures.
These actions leave Iran’s nuclear program vulnerable, with its key facilities lacking effective defenses against airstrikes.
The most fortified site, the Fordow underground nuclear facility, has historically been considered nearly impervious to conventional attacks.
However, recent Israeli military operations, such as the destruction of Iran’s underground Masyaf missile facility in Syria, suggest a potential pathway.
Analysts speculate that Israel could adapt such tactics, employing either aerial strikes or a Special Forces operation to target Fordow.
Israel’s enhanced Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missile defense systems, bolstered by U.S. support, have proven effective against Iran’s ballistic missile volleys.
This defense capability, demonstrated during attacks in April and October, provides Israel with confidence to counter any retaliatory strikes from Tehran.
Iran’s traditional deterrents, including support from Hezbollah and Hamas, are currently in disarray. Both groups face internal challenges, reducing their capacity to mount significant offensives on behalf of their Iranian allies.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have emphasized their ability to carry out covert operations deep within Iranian territory, citing the assassination of a high-profile Hamas leader in July and the 2018 seizure of Iran’s nuclear archives.
The potential for American involvement adds another layer of complexity. Former President Donald Trump has publicly encouraged Israel to act against Iran’s nuclear advancements, offering assurances of U.S. support.
Reports suggest that Trump’s administration is considering providing Israel with bunker-buster bombs, which would enhance its capability to target deeply buried facilities like Fordow.
Israeli leaders, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, have advocated for immediate action, arguing that the current geopolitical climate presents a unique window of opportunity.
However, it appears Israel is awaiting further clarity on Trump’s strategic vision for handling Iran. As tensions escalate, the clock is ticking. Iran’s nuclear program continues to advance, and Israel’s window to act decisively could narrow.
Whether through airstrikes, covert operations, or a combination of tactics, Israeli officials have signaled their readiness to neutralize the nuclear threat.
The question remains: how long will Iran have to de-escalate and avoid a confrontation? For now, the possibility of an Israeli strike looms larger than ever.