Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Appears Increasingly Likely

As Iran inches closer to nuclear weapons capability, growing indications suggest that Israel is seriously considering a preemptive strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

A soon-to-be-published article in the Middle East Quarterly by Colin Winston, a former CIA veteran and ex-research head at the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), underscores the increasing pressure within Israel’s security establishment to take decisive action against Iran.

“Hezbollah and Hamas no longer pose a threat to Israel,” Winston asserts in the article. “Iran’s air defense systems have been significantly degraded, and its missile capabilities have been decimated. Despite this, Iran is nearing the production of weapons-grade uranium, making reliance on timely intelligence warnings an unreliable strategy.” He further advocates for a joint Israeli-American military strike as the most effective course of action.

Strategic Calculations and Military Readiness

Israeli concerns stem from Iran’s recent acceleration of uranium enrichment, with levels now reaching 60%, significantly shortening the time required to achieve a nuclear bomb.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran could amass enough fissile material for a weapon within weeks rather than months.

Further emboldening Israel’s stance is the weakening of Iran’s deterrence capabilities. In late 2024, Israel inflicted devastating blows on Hezbollah, destroying an estimated 80% of the group’s rocket arsenal and eliminating a substantial portion of its leadership.

Simultaneously, a large-scale Israeli retaliation on October 26, 2024, significantly degraded Iran’s air defense systems, leaving the country temporarily vulnerable.

However, military experts warn that these strategic advantages are not permanent. Iran’s alliance with Russia could soon facilitate the acquisition of the advanced S-400 air defense system, restoring Tehran’s protective umbrella.

Similarly, Hezbollah—though weakened—remains the most formidable non-state military force in Lebanon and could eventually rebuild its arsenal with Iranian support.

Iran’s Regional Influence Persists

Despite its setbacks, Iran’s influence remains entrenched across the region. Tehran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen continue to disrupt global shipping routes, while Shi’ite militias in Iraq maintain political and military leverage within Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government.

Even in Syria, where the Assad regime’s fall severely hampered Iranian operations, smuggling networks and Hezbollah elements remain active.

With Iran’s adversaries in a momentary state of weakness, Israeli analysts believe this is a fleeting window of opportunity to strike. “Any advantage Israel holds today will erode with time,” one senior security official warned.

US Position and the Prospect of Military Action

While Israel appears increasingly prepared to act, the pivotal question remains Washington’s stance. Reports suggest the Biden administration favors diplomatic engagement, coupled with a revival of the “maximum pressure” strategy previously employed during the Trump presidency.

However, should diplomatic efforts fail, military intervention could return to the forefront of US policy considerations. Israeli journalist Ben Caspit recently quoted an associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who expressed confidence in American backing.

“The gates of hell will be opened for Iran,” he said. “Trump will give Netanyahu the green light, and the Americans will provide the necessary support for success.”

Still, uncertainties persist. Trump has signaled a preference for reducing military engagements, making his ultimate decision unpredictable.

Furthermore, Iran is likely to exploit diplomatic channels to delay or deter military action. Nevertheless, as Iran’s nuclear advancements near a critical threshold, the likelihood of an Israeli strike is higher than at any time in the past two decades.

Whether Israel acts unilaterally or secures US cooperation remains to be seen, but the Middle East is undoubtedly on edge as the situation unfolds.

This article was created using automation technology and was thoroughly edited and fact-checked by one of our editorial staff members