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JERUSALEM – July 18, 2025 — The ruling Likud party has regained momentum and surged to the top of the polls following the departure of the haredi parties from the government earlier this week, according to a Maariv poll released on Friday.
Despite this shift, the latest data reveals continued political stalemate, as no bloc garners enough seats to form a governing coalition.
The survey, conducted by Lazar Research in partnership with Panel4All, shows Likud gaining two seats to reach a total of 26, while Naftali Bennett’s party lost three, dropping to 22.
In total, the current coalition commands 53 seats, while the opposition, bolstered by Bennett’s support, reaches 57—both short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a government.
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, should he run with an independent party, is projected to win nine seats. However, even with Eisenkot’s entry into the race, the opposition fails to secure a majority.
This new formation would still leave the opposition bloc with only 58 seats, hindered by a lack of crossover support between ideological camps.
If elections were held today, the projected Knesset seat distribution would be: Likud (26), Bennett’s party (22), Yisrael Beytenu (11), The Democrats (10), Shas (9), Yesh Atid (8), United Torah Judaism (7), Otzma Yehudit (7), Blue and White (6), Ra’am (5), Hadash-Ta’al (5), and Religious Zionism (4).
The poll also touched on major national issues. Public opinion on the exemption from conscription law—currently promoted by Netanyahu’s administration—reveals 57% of Israelis believe it harms national security, with only 32% saying it does not.
Among opposition voters, 83% view the law as detrimental, while 61% of coalition supporters disagree with that assessment.
On the war in Gaza, Israelis remain divided: 44% believe the military campaign will not achieve its objectives, while 42% are optimistic. Views are split along political lines, with 73% of coalition voters confident of success, and 70% of opposition supporters doubtful.
In a rare show of unity, 51% of both coalition and opposition voters support IDF intervention to protect the Druze population in southern Syria. Overall, 47% of Israelis back such military action, 27% oppose it, and 25% remain undecided.
The poll sampled 506 adults across Israel’s Jewish and Arab populations from July 16–17, 2025, with a margin of error of ±4.4%. As the political map continues to shift, the possibility of a stable government formation remains uncertain.