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Jerusalem — The future of a controversial bill exempting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service appears increasingly uncertain as internal divisions within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition threaten to derail both the legislation and the state budget.
On Thursday, members of the coalition’s Agudath Yisrael faction, part of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, sent a stern warning to Netanyahu, vowing to oppose the 2025 state budget unless the government passes the conscription exemption bill.
The letter was signed by Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, along with MKs Ya’akov Tessler and Moshe Roth. The ultimatum follows reports suggesting that senior coalition members now doubt the bill’s chances of passing during the current Knesset legislative session.
According to a senior coalition official cited by Ynet, the bill is effectively “dead” for now. The Prime Minister’s Office dismissed these claims as “fake news,” insisting that the legislation would still move forward.
Pressure from Within the Coalition
The Agudath Yisrael faction’s warning underscores the fragile nature of Netanyahu’s coalition, which includes various ultra-Orthodox parties alongside right-wing and nationalist factions. Goldknopf has made it clear that his party views the conscription exemption as a non-negotiable demand.
“We have two options before us: either they put off the conscription bill and we go to summer elections, or they insist on the conscription bill before the budget and the government completes its term,” Goldknopf declared at a UTJ faction meeting.
The 2025 state budget must be approved by the end of March to avoid triggering early elections. However, the UTJ’s hardline stance has not received unanimous support within the Haredi camp.
Shas leader Aryeh Deri initially echoed Goldknopf’s threats but later backtracked, with a party spokesman denying any intent to topple the government.
Meanwhile, Shas MK Avraham Betzalel argued against linking the budget and conscription bill, suggesting that both should pass independently.
In a further sign of division, Degel Hatorah, the non-Hasidic faction of UTJ, has adopted a more pragmatic approach.
Party leader MK Moshe Gafni, along with Deri, issued a joint statement praising the proposed budget’s benefits for Haredi institutions while signaling continued efforts to resolve the enlistment issue without making it a red line for supporting the budget.
Edelstein’s Opposition and the Bill’s Impasse
Complicating matters further is the opposition from within Netanyahu’s Likud party itself. Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, has pledged that his committee will only advance a conscription law that significantly broadens the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) recruitment base.
Edelstein’s stance has effectively stalled the bill’s progress, with a Likud source admitting that Netanyahu “understood that he could no longer pressure Edelstein.”
Edelstein’s committee, tasked with preparing the bill for its second and third readings, has yet to make any significant advancements, signaling that the legislation might be delayed indefinitely. As a result, the likelihood of passing the conscription bill before the budget deadline appears increasingly slim.
Growing Tensions and Threats of Resignation
Amid the escalating tensions, reports have emerged suggesting that Goldknopf is considering resigning before the final budget vote if the exemption bill does not pass.
This move could further destabilize the coalition, particularly if it prompts other Haredi factions to follow suit. Despite the mounting pressure, some within the Haredi leadership appear willing to compromise.
According to Radio Kol Hai, Degel Hatorah’s MKs plan to consult with spiritual leaders Rabbi Moshe Hirsch and Rabbi Dov Lando, who are expected to advise prioritizing the budget’s passage over the conscription bill.
The budget itself has been described by Gafni and Deri as delivering “dramatic achievements” for the Haredi sector, particularly in terms of increased funding for religious institutions.
This has raised questions about whether Goldknopf’s threat to oppose the budget is a genuine ultimatum or a bargaining tactic.
IDF’s Struggle with Haredi Enlistment
The controversy over the conscription bill comes amid ongoing challenges for the IDF in enforcing enlistment among the ultra-Orthodox community.
Since a High Court ruling last summer mandated the drafting of yeshiva students, the army has issued about 10,000 enlistment orders. However, only 177 individuals have enlisted, according to Lt. Col. Avigdor Dickstein, who oversees Haredi enlistment efforts.
In an attempt to address the widespread non-compliance, the IDF has sent over 2,200 follow-up draft orders and issued more than 1,000 arrest warrants for those who ignored them.
However, military police have no plans to act on these warrants immediately, instead opting to declare non-compliant individuals as “draft evaders.”
Being declared a draft evader carries significant consequences, including travel bans and potential arrest during any interaction with law enforcement. So far, 265 Haredim have been officially designated as draft evaders.
Political and Social Implications
The struggle over the conscription bill highlights deeper societal tensions in Israel regarding the role of the ultra-Orthodox community.
While secular and national-religious factions argue that mandatory service should apply to all citizens equally, Haredi leaders contend that full-time Torah study is a vital national interest that justifies exemptions.
The issue has also sparked protests by extremist ultra-Orthodox factions, with recent demonstrations outside the IDF recruitment center at Tel Hashomer leading to clashes with police. Protesters view the draft orders as an existential threat to their religious way of life.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is attempting to balance the conflicting demands of his coalition partners. His office has maintained that the exemption bill will proceed and that it will both “regulate the status” of yeshiva students and encourage greater Haredi enlistment.
However, with time running out before the budget deadline and internal divisions showing no sign of abating, the prospect of early elections looms large. For now, the fate of the conscription bill — and possibly Netanyahu’s government — hangs in the balance.